Technical Analysis
S&P 500 — Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Price Update
Introduction:
The trajectory of the S&P 500 index is of utmost importance for investors across markets, influencing investment strategies and risk management. In the realm of market dynamics, especially when seeking to exploit mid-to-shorter term inefficiencies, technical analysis emerges as a powerful tool for investors. Despite the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggesting that markets eventually efficiently incorporate all available information into prices, it's evident that in the mid-to-shorter term, certain anomalies persist. Techniques like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Price Analysis play a crucial role in uncovering these inefficiencies, particularly in deciphering volume and price patterns. By leveraging these methodologies, investors gain a competitive edge, navigating market fluctuations with precision and capitalizing on opportunities that may otherwise go unnoticed. This perspective not only acknowledges the EMH but also underscores the strategic importance of technical analysis in seizing advantages within the market landscape.
Long-term Perspective:
S&P 500 Future — 1 week Bar Chart
Mid-Term Perspective:
S&P 500 Future — 8 hour Bar Chart
Short-Term Analysis:
S&P 500 Future — 30 minute Bar Chart
Wave Table
| Wave Degree | Start Date | Wave Count | Trend Direction | Target Price | Wave Status | Target Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 01/04/2022 | (A) | Down | Near 3253 | In Progress | TBD |
| Intermediate | 01/04/2022 | A | Down | 3871 | Complete | 03/13/23 |
| Intermediate | 03/13/2023 | B | Up | 5467 | In Progress | TBD |
| Intermediate | TBD | C | Down | Near 3491 | After B up | TBD |
| Primary | 04/26/2023 | (B) | Up | < 4808 | After (A) down | TBD |
| Primary | TBD | (C) | Down | < 3264 | After (B) up | TBD |
Current Triggers & Targets
Targets for Intermediate Wave (iv) UP:
5095.25 = .382 (achieved)
5136.00 = .500 (achieved)
5166.75 = current retracement high so far
5176.75 = .618
5235.00 = .786
5235.00 = MOB (make or brake primary scenario at wave (i) low)
Invalidation of Primary Scenario (MOB):
Wave (iv) up must hold below wave (i) low of 5235.00. If so, then wave (v) down will follow and must extend below wave (iii) low of 4963.50. Any significant move below the 4963.50 low indicates that the Wave (v) downward correction is complete. More specific Wave (v) targets can be calculated upon completion of the current ongoing Wave (iv) retracement. Wave (iv) retracements are of corrective nature, wobble up and down with overlaps in the extremes and a sideways disposition.
Targets for Intermediate Wave (iii) DOWN:
5210.00 = 1.000 (achieved, close hit)
5149.25 = 1.618 (achieved, accurate hit)
5050.75 = 2.618 (achieved, accurate hit)
4952.50 = 3.618 (achieved, close hit)
4963.50 = low so far
Triggers:
Trigger SHORT #1 @ 5235.00 (activated 04/04/2024)
271.50 points gain to 4963.50 low!
$13,575 profit/contract. (1 point = $50)
New Profit Targets DOWN:
1.0706 = .618 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0601 = current low so far
5210.00 = 1.000 (achieved, accurate hit)
5149.00 = 1.618 (achieved, accurate hit)
5050.75 = 2.618 (achieved, accurate hit)
4963.50 = 3.618 (achieved, close hit) current low so far
Trigger SHORT #2 @ 5191.50 (activated 04/10/2024)
228 point gain to 4963.50 low!
$11,400 profit/contract. (1 point = $50)
Trigger SHORT #3 @ 5060.00 (activated 04/17/2024)
228 point gain to 4963.50 low!
$4,825 profit/contract. (1 point = $50)
$29,800 = Total profit when adding one contract at each downside trigger after the 5333.50 high starting with the first downside trigger on 04/04/2024.
Disclaimer
All opinions expressed in association with the Investing Club Subscription Services and any related content, including newsletters, from Alexander Mayr (collectively referred to as the “Mayr Content”) solely represent the analyst opinions of Alexander Mayr. Alexander Mayr's compensation is not directly linked to the specific opinions expressed in the Mayr Content, and no fiduciary obligation or duty is established between you and Alexander Mayr, including any investing advice provided in connection with the Mayr Content. The Mayr Content is published in the United States of America, and individuals accessing it agree to do so in accordance with applicable U.S. law.
While any financial analysis and opinions presented in connection with the Mayr Content are based on information deemed reliable, Alexander Mayr does not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of, nor is under any obligation to update or correct, any information provided. Opinions expressed in connection with the Mayr Content are subject to change without notice.
Alexander Mayr may own securities discussed in his personal portfolio, and the portfolio may benefit from your purchase or sale of the discussed securities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. No specific outcome or profit is guaranteed with your reliance upon or other use of the Mayr Content. The opinions presented are not an attempt to induce any specific trading behavior, investment, or strategy. You should be aware of the risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed in the Mayr Content.
Investments or strategies presented in connection with the Mayr Content: (a) may not be suitable for you; (b) do not consider your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs; and (c) are not intended to provide investment advice or recommendations suitable for you. Before making any investment or trade, assess its suitability and consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
Explore the World of Investing with Alexander Mayr.
Unlock exclusive insights into the investment strategies of Alexander Mayr. Enhance your investment wisdom with immediate access to Alexander’s Club Portfolio, his Analyst Journal, market outlooks & recaps, and more.
