Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast — Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Price Update
Introduction:
The EUR/USD exchange rate holds paramount significance for international investors in both real estate and capital markets, acting as a pivotal factor in shaping investment strategies and risk management. In the realm of market dynamics, especially when seeking to exploit mid-to-shorter term inefficiencies, technical analysis emerges as a powerful tool for investors. Despite the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggesting that markets eventually efficiently incorporate all available information into prices, it's evident that in the mid-to-shorter term, certain anomalies persist. Techniques like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Price Analysis play a crucial role in uncovering these inefficiencies, particularly in deciphering volume and price patterns. By leveraging these methodologies, investors gain a competitive edge, navigating market fluctuations with precision and capitalizing on opportunities that may otherwise go unnoticed. This perspective not only acknowledges the EMH but also underscores the strategic importance of technical analysis in seizing advantages within the market landscape.
Long-Term Perspective:
EUR/USD — 1 week Candle Chart
Mid-Term Perspective:
EUR/USD — 8 hour Candle Chart
Short-Term Analysis:
EUR/USD — 45 minute Candle Chart
(Remark: The Pink and Blue wave counts are alternate wave counts that I am tracking. In this analysis the White count is the currently preferred primary count.)
Wave Table
| Wave Degree | Start Date | Wave Count | Trend Direction | Target Price | Wave Status | Target Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 09/28/2022 | (I) | Up | 1.1095 | Complete | 04/26/2023 |
| Intermediate | 04/26/2023 | (a) | Down | 1.0653 | Complete | 05/31/23 |
| Intermediate | 05/26/2023 | (b) | Up | 1.1275 | Complete | 07/18/2023 |
| Intermediate | 07/18/2023 | (c) | Down | 1.0448 | Complete | 10/03/2023 |
| Primary | 04/26/2023 | (II) | Down | 1.0448 | In Progress | ? |
| Intermediate | 10/03/2023 | I | Up | 1.1139 | In Progress | ? |
| Intermediate | 12/28/2023 | II | Down | <1.0601 | In Progress | ? |
Current Triggers & Targets
Targets for Primary Wave (II) DOWN:
1.0727 = .236 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0499 = .382 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0448 = low so far
1.0315 = .500
1.0131 = 0.618
0.9535 = MOB (make or brake primary scenario at wave (I) low)
Invalidation of Primary Scenario (MOB):
Wave (II) down must hold above wave (I) low of 0.9535. If so, then wave (III) up will follow and must extend above wave (I) high of 1.1095. Any significant move above 1.1095 high indicates that the Wave (II) downward correction is complete.
Targets for Intermediate Wave II DOWN:
1.0891 = .382 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0806 = .500 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0722 = .618 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0601 = .786 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0601 = low so far
1.0529 = .886
1.0448 = MOB (make or brake primary scenario at wave I low)
Invalidation of Intermediate Scenario (MOB):
Wave II down must hold above wave I low of 1.0448. If so, then wave III up will follow and must extend above wave I high of 1.1139. Any significant move above 1.1139 high indicates that the Wave II downward correction is complete.
Triggers/Investment Considerations:
Trigger SHORT #1 @ 1.0730 (activated 03/13/2024)
129 pip gain to 1.0601 low!
$1,290 profit/lot. (1 lot = $100,000)
New Profit Targets DOWN:
1.0706 = .618 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0601 = current low so far
1.0536 = 1.000
1.0415 = 1.272
1.0352 = 1.414
1.0262 = 1.618
Trigger SHORT #2 @ 1.0724 (activated 04/11/2024)
123 pip gain to 1.0601 low!
$1,230 profit/lot. (1 lot = $100,000)
New Profit Targets DOWN:
1.0727 = .618 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0629 = 1.000 (achieved, accurate hit)
1.0601 = current low so far
1.0560 = 1.272
1.0524 = 1.414
1.0472 = 1.618
$2,520 = Total profit when adding one lot at each downside trigger to the 4963.50 high starting with first downside trigger on 03/13/2024.
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